Wouldn't it be nice if your business had a simple way to quickly discern what lies ahead and when to expect results or a disruption. Just imagine having zero uncertainty about the future - a crystal ball, as it were.
How would such certainty shape your strategy – the decisions and actions you take to achieve your objectives?
Executives long for a crystal ball
The executives I advise want to accelerate performance. They constantly look ahead to drive strategy forward. Undoubtedly, the greater the certainty, the more confidently leaders take decisions and guide their teams. When the outcome is both clear and in sight, it’s much easier to speed up or give a final push to the finish. They readily ask their teams to stretch further.
Armed with clarity about the future, people achieve objectives faster. No wonder executives long for a crystal ball!
Consistently achieve the right balance
Strategy is a journey that seldom goes as planned. And the more ambitious or distant your vision, the more likely it is that your business context will change substantively along the way. The best strategy combines focused attention to what matters most for your business and sufficient flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances. This is strategic agility. CEOs that consistently achieve the right balance of these two reach their destination (the vision) on time.
Yet in the real world, there is no crystal ball. Absent the perfect foresight of a crystal ball, what do savvy CEOs do?
Embrace scenario thinking
I guide executives to embrace scenario thinking. More art than science, scenario thinking illuminates how things work together to result in different possible outcomes. Unlike contingency planning, scenarios bring together multiple uncertainties simultaneously. Each scenario considers both objective and subjective factors and creates space for emotion – in much the same way as a vision can inspire.
Scenario thinking allows leaders to look into the future in a structured way. Each scenario tells a different story based on a different combination of the most critical drivers of change for the industry. Done well, the scenario charts a course from the present to the future and highlights the interdependence – and interactions – of the drivers that result in varied outcomes.
Trigger deliberate action
Importantly, scenario thinking describes possible outcomes that are both exciting and terrifying. (I often term the latter one: “All Hell Breaks Loose.”) In my experience, both extremes – excitement and fear – trigger deliberate action. Scenarios provide a framework that helps people to respond dynamically to an unknown future – like managing the unexpected (as I described here.)
Deliberate action is at the heart of scenario thinking. Yet, its value is not solely about the action itself.
Knowing what you’ll do when the future comes
Effective scenario thinking sparks conversation and enhances planning. Constructing scenarios, participants describe what may happen at some point in the future. Using scenarios, leaders identify the critical decisions they face and potential options or levers they can pull to address the situation. It’s not only dreaming about the future. It’s about knowing what you’ll do when the future comes to be.
Skilled CEOs embrace scenario thinking to anticipate and plan for a range of possible futures. Rather than distributing crystal balls, they arm their teams with a framework for taking decisions, particularly when the stakes are high or the status quo response is not an option.
For more on scenario thinking, listen to my conversation with Pam & Scott Harper on this episode of the award-winning Growth Igniters® Radio podcast.
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